Reviews of 'Tim Marshall's' book "Prisoners of Geography"

In the book “Prisoners of Geography”, author Tim Marshall explores the limitations imposed by geography and how these factors have shaped global power dynamics.  

Tim illustrates the paradox of the "geographical suitcase" where countries are affected by deserts, mountains, rivers, and seas surrounding their territories. He provides a simple yet profound understanding of how nations, based on their geographical location, often have no choice but to adapt their strategies, fight wars, or navigate global politics in ways that align with their physical surroundings.  

For instance, Marshall cites the example of Russia. If Putin would be praying to God, it would be, "Why didn't you put some mountains in Ukraine?" In corollary, he points out that India owes much of its security to the natural protection offered by the Himalayas. 

The book offers a decent and summarized overview of geopolitics, reflecting Marshall's perspective as a journalist rather than an academician, who experience geopolitical events in Kosovo war and more. While it provides a basic understanding of global political landscapes and its impacts, it may not be suitable for readers seeking a deeper, more scholarly analysis. Nonetheless, chapters on Russia, the United States, and China are particularly insightful and worthwhile for anyone interested in International Politics. 

I would suggest this book to any person who is interested in understanding geopolitics, area studies and International Relations. In addition, the book takes approximately 18-24 hours to complete at a heightened pace. 

India's Demographic dividend, challenges and opportunities

Demographic dividend of any country is the potential for economic growth derived from a young-ward shift in the age distribution of its population. It occurs when the share of working-age population (15-64 years) increases, while the percentage share of non-working age population decreases.

As number of working-age population in labor force rises, the dependency of elderly decreases on labor force, which leads to economic surplus. For achieving this phase, a country transitions from phase of high fertility/mortality rate to low fertility/mortality rates. During demographic transition, families tend to have fewer children, which allows household resources to be invested in broader range, such as long-term well-being and education.

India stands as the world's largest provider of human resources, contributing approximately 24.3% of the global international workforce. The country is home to around 600 million people aged between 18 to 35 years, with approximately 65% of its population below 35 years old. India's demographic dividend is expected to peak around 2041, and it is estimated to last until 2055-56. Dependency ratio of India is about to reach its lowest point at 31.2% by 2023. India’s overall labor force participation have increased to 42.4% in 2023, compared to 41.3% in 2022. According to the Ministry of Women and Child Development, India’s female labor force participation rate has increased in FY 2022-23 by 4.2% to 37% total. Trend of FLFPR in last five years was as follows: 37%, 32.8%, 32.5%, 30.0%, and 24.5%.

India has become world’s most highly populated country in 2023, with the largest youth workforce. This is both an opportunity and a challenge for India, because young workforce is the driver of economic growth while, if it’s potentials is not channelized properly, it can turn into a national crisis. Three-fourth of India’s workers are engaged in low paying jobs, while around 45% of Indian population rely on agriculture. Around 28% of youth are engaged in unpaid help in household ventures which is ‘disguised unemployment.’

To address this challenge, Bibek Debroy, the Chairperson of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, suggested that India needs to create around 5 –8 million jobs per year. Despite the increasing economic growth of the country, there is a lack of quality skilled and formally trained workforce also. As India recently surpassed China as the most populist country in the world, it also dreams to take over as world’s manufacturing hub but these dreams seem challenging due to a dearth of adequate skilling.

India-Bangladesh Bilateral Relations

India and Bangladesh are separated by a long border, and connected through shared cultural, social, economic, and civilizational ties. Bangla national anthem, written by none other than Nobel Laurette “Rabindranath Tagore”, who also wrote the Indian National Anthem. which signifies a truly composite nature of the relations between both people. Bangladesh shares 4094 kilometres of land border with India. It is almost surrounded on three sides by Eastern part of India and a small border with Myanmar. India played a crucial role in the Bangladeshi freedom struggle by launching “Operation Jackpot”, and also sheltered approximately 10 million refugees, who fled East-Pakistan in 1971. As both countries completed 50 years of relations, the focus of the relations has shifted from shared concerns about Pakistan to fledging economic ties.

Located strategically at the North of the Bay of Bengal, major powers such as China, Japan and the United States court Dhaka as a maritime hub. Owing to the vulnerable Chicken’s neck corridor, India has a quintessential requirement to keep solid ties with Bangladesh to open-up multiple access-points to the North-Eastern part of the country as well as build trans-national corridors spanning South-East Asia. Hence, Bangladesh has remained a major recipient of India's "Neighborhood First Policy" and "Act East policy".

In 2023, the Bangladesh government led by Sheikh Hasina allowed access to four transit routes to India, namely Port-Akhaura-Agartala, Chittagong-Bibirbazar-Srimantapur, Mongla Port-Akhaura-Agartala and Mongla Port-Bibirbazar-Srimantapur for transporting goods and services. There are major four rail links between India – Bangladesh namely, Bangladesh- Petrapole – Benapole, Gede – Darshana, Singhabad -Rohanpur, and Radhikapur – Birol. The Agartala-Akhaura railway project was inaugurated by Indian PM Narendra Modi and his counterpart Bangladeshi PM Sheikh Hasina in 2023. There is large consensus on most policies among both countries which includes increasing the connectivity via land and maritime routes.

People-to-people relations remains the special character of both Bangla-speaking lands. Since, the division of Bengal happened only a century ago by the British, there is a deep inter-connectedness among people on both side of the Eastern boundary of India. Bangladesh is the fifth largest destination of foreign remittances in India. Almost $4 billion Indian nationals are working in Bangladesh. Indian tourism statistics highlight that, the Bangladesh ranks second

in foreign tourist arrival in India with 20% of percentage share. According to Union Tourism Ministry, “It sent the biggest number of medical tourists in India, with 54.3% of percentage share in 2019".

According to the "India Brand Equity Foundation," the total trade among India-Bangladesh in FY 2023 touched US$ 14.22 billion. India's total exports to Bangladesh crossed US$ 12.00 billion. India exports various products to Bangladesh such as cotton yarn, petroleum products, cereals, cotton fabrics and electricity. In FY 2023 India also imported various products from Bangladesh such as RGM Cotton, Cotton Fabrics, RMC manmade fibers, jute and spices worth almost US$ 2.02 billion. Various Indian public sector companies such as Indian Oil Corporation, unmilitary Refinery Limited, and Perronet LNG are working in collaboration with Bangladesh. Thus, both countries remain one of the top bilateral trade partners of each other.

Just like Nepal and Bhutan, Energy cooperation is a hallmark of the India- Bangladesh relationship with the former sourcing its substantial power needs from India. In 2023, at “Two-day India-Bangladesh Strategic Dialogue” in New Delhi, Bangladeshi High Commissioner to India MD Mustafizur Rahman said, “his country is importing nearly 2,000 MW of electricity from India”. According to the Business Standard in 2023 "India- Bangladesh- Nepal" has finalized a draft of the tripartite trade agreement for power sharing among nations. Since 2015, under a coastal- shipping agreement, Indian merchant vessels could use Chittagong and Mongla ports instead of using the Singapore route which cuts costs. In addition, India – Bangladesh also signed an MOU on maritime cooperation and blue economy to promote green tourism apart from extensive interactions regarding disaster mitigation. Both countries face multiple devastating seasonal and recurring cyclones in the Bay of Bengal.

In 2013, India- Bangladesh signed an extradition treaty to counter the threat of radical Islamic fundamentalism linked to AL-Qaeda and Pakistan's intelligence operations. They exchanged political prisoners also under this agreement. In 2015, Bangladesh transferred separatist group ULFA’s founder Anup Chetia to India, who was in Bangladeshi jail from 1997. India also handed over Narayanganj seven-murder accused “Nur Hossain” to Bangladesh in 2015. Shared security concerns over radicalism remains a key metric of jointness for both countries’ agencies. India has previously engaged Bangladeshi agencies in multiple security-related concerns and this engagement has also built momentum. This can be ascertained by the reduction in violent incidents between the border police of both countries. Annual defense

exercises such as SAMPRITI continues to enhance interoperability between security forces of both countries.

The impending agreement for sharing Teesta waters is an important issue plaguing relation, but historical examples of successful cooperation make it achievable. In 1996, Ganges Water Treaty was signed by India - Bangladesh to share drinking water for 30 years, which is near to expire in 2026. Various other challenges between both nations do exist and needs quick resolution, namely illegal trade carried out through porous borders, such as bootleg smuggling; Farakka Barrage and Teesta River dispute; human trafficking; radicalism; arms smuggling; etc. The issue of poor treatment of minority Hindu citizens of Bangladesh, including communal tensions have remained a major irritant in the political ties among both countries.

However, Bilateral relations between India and Bangladesh reflect strong cultural, historical and economic ties. A recent example can be the US objection to the status of democracy in Bangladesh. Despite the American objections to Dhaka’s current democratic process, Status of non-wavering ally among India and Bangladesh haven’t changed. The frequent in-person talks between PM Narendra Modi and Sheikh Hasina suggests that both countries continue to share deep insights regarding the shared future of the strong bilateral relations.